Saturday, 7 March 2009

Effects of global crisis

The European economy into recession was a global crisis. European Union (EU) partners of the euro currency used in 15 countries, including the Euro Area, in a thousand in the second quarter after shrinking 2 in the third quarter narrowed to 2 per mil, 15 years after the entry into recession. 

According to official statistics agency Eurostat'ın data, in the second quarter with zero growth, has taken the 27 members of the EU economy, in a thousand in the third quarter was 2 smaller. Eurostat, strong economic performance in the first quarter annual growth rate of the end of the third quarter because of the Euro Area in a thousand and 7 thousand in the EU 8 is announced. All EU members, the third-quarter growth figures are not clear. However, according to data Eurostat'ın, smaller percentage of the economy between 1'le Estonia, millesimal 5'le Germany and Britain, hundreds and hundreds 1'le Hungary is 2'yle Spain. In the economy, a country reduced to a quarter of two in a row, means stagnation. 


Decline in inflation 

Euro area growth in the bad signals coming from the inflation rate was declining. Euro Area in October at 3.6 percent from 3.2 percent to down. European Central Bank's inflation and economic contraction in the fall to take into account the interest rate reduction by 4 At its meeting in December is expected to continue the policy. Economists per cent 1.5 per cent next year 3:25-level indicators of interest 'is predicting it will be reduced. 

U.S. at the start of the crisis impact on the European economy was great. State in the country as follows: 

GERMANY: Europe's biggest economy shrinking 0.5 percent in the third quarter of Germany five years after the re-entry into recession. Economy, 0.4 percent in the second quarter was smaller. 

ITALY: Germany, then Italy's entry into the official recession. Euro area has the third largest economy, Italy has been narrowed 0.5 percent in the third quarter. Italian economy shrinking at a rate of 0.4 percent was in the second quarter. 

FRANCE: France has a close shave from recession. France Finance Minister Christine Lagarde, the French economy in the third quarter by growing recession 0:14 percentage was recorded in the escape. Make a statement to a French radio that Lagarde, the economy in the consumption and investment growth in the surprise effect was noted. France 0.3 per cent in the second quarter had narrowed. 

SPAIN: Spain get rid of the stagnation among the countries. The economy grew 0.1 percent in the second quarter of Spain, has been shrinking 0.2 percent in the third quarter. 

NETHERLANDS: Dutch economy in the second and third quarter growth to zero, and the deadlock has occurred. 

Citigroup's 10-thousand people will stop to work more 

U.S. 'li financial group Citigroup, return to profitability within the framework of studies on other large-scale removal from work, it's millions of credit card interest rates are also preparing to upgrade. These decisions, the group CEO Vikram Pandit'in, described the damage as 20 billion dollars has been received. New York-based company's shares, the single digits in the dollar was 9:45. Citigroup to start this week, investment banking and other parts of the world at least the last 10 thousand employee's job vereek. Pandit and assistants, running from the authorities about the charges at a rate of 25 percent budget reduction asked. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal in the Citi Board of Directors Chairman in relation to news release pursuant to the Citi Board of Directors, the company's Chairman Sir Win Bischoff'a full support to underline again, Sir Win Bischoff'un continue to be pleased by the leadership says. 

Paulson, the package of democratic revolt was changed 

U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry 700 billion dollar rescue package Paulson'ın buy risky assets is not her description of the Democratic party. Democratic senators will use the package to increase the consumption Paulson'ı explaining, "Comments before you tell us why did not" diyerek criticized. In September, senators and the Treasury's two-week talks with the astonishment of the order creating the senator said, "The government's 700 billion dollar rescue plan has evolved. Paulson package using numerous performances in front of could not be passed. The U.S. was very disturbing" said. Republican senators Tom Coburn, Richard Burr and David Vitter wrote a letter to the Paulson'a "on the use of the package so a quick transformation to go, how to use funds to create a serious question mark was" alert has. 

We have given information 

Treasury spokesman, however, "Congress authorized for us to provide stability in financial markets did. Moreover, this package of recommendations of the congress was" The Paulson'ı said. The same spokesman in recent days to explain the whole problem of protection of assets (TARP) program was expressed that the scope of work rapidly. Indeed, Treasury's program to work with asset managers, said work would take. However, according to sources close to the government backstage Paulson, was away on September 29 of this idea. Congress rejected the 700 billion dollar package after readmission to the market yet, not moral. 

Dexia'dan 1.5 billion loss 

THE GLOBAL financial crisis in Belgium, France and Luxembourg 6.4 billion euros of capital by transferring their banking giant Dexia rescued, 1 billion 544 million euros in the third quarter was hurt. Bank in the same period of last year profit was 439 million euros. Dexia'dan made with 2.2 billion in losses in the third quarter balance sheet losses of global financial crisis is set to be effective, it does not take into account the bank's reported profit was 647 million euros. The Bank in the framework of the restructuring plan, the New York-based bond insurance Financial Security Assurance Inc.. (FSA) to sell unit for $ 722 million was announced for the final agreement reached. Dexia, the global crisis by explaining the large loss of capital in 2000, 2.6 billion dollars eriten FSA'yı was purchased. 

Hedge funds: We should be taxed higher 

World's biggest hedge fund managers in Congress on Thursday irregular financial instruments bigger losses may lead to excessive attention to strict rules on the warning has. George Soros of the leading hedge fund managers, the question of crisis and not to their financial system arising from the said. James Simons of Renaissance Technologies managers also draw attention to the problem was caused by the rating agencies. Citade'in manager is Kenneth Griffin, "The problem really stems from the irregularity had more rigid rules related to institutions affected by the crisis," he said. Committee chairman Henry Waxman of the Democrats say, "The problem was caused by funds provided tax reductions," he said. 

U.S. 'li racing clutch of banks deposits 

U.S. 'deposits between banks in the race are increasing contraction. Citigroup, the largest of which, with 55 branches all bank deposits to S & T Bancorp'a much sharper increase in their interest rates do. This competition, to ensure that customers get more benefits, the United States in large and small banks to compress profit margins are causing hardship to live. Financial services consulting firm Oliver Wyman, "Deposit Taking race is speeding up the national price war. Something like this in the past 15 years have not lived. Unable to predict at this time the degree of competition," he said. 

Credit Suisse asset management partner is to 

Swiss bank Credit Suisse, traditional asset management is part of continuing negotiations for the possible partnership. According to sources close to the subject of the information, the Swiss bank, one of the three branches of franchise'larından asset management by Global Investors'ı smaller, better serve customers and to provide. Global Investors 212 billion U.S. dollars (255 billion Swiss Francs) to manage assets. 

Sun Microsystems, just 6 thousand workers will remove 

U.S. 'li IT firm Sun Microsystems at global level is between 5 and 6 thousand workers who will dismiss. Made, the employees of Sun Microsystems company is approximately 18 percent is between 5 to 6 thousand jobs next year, just out of practice to the preparation are explained. President of Software Rich Green of the company has resigned from the task. Noted that dismissal of the company to Sun in a year between 700-800 million dollars to savings specified.

Gold as an investment

Gold is rapidly becoming the only welcoming port in a sea of uncertainty as worries rise over other traditional safe havens, including government debt.

And with few signs that the world's worst economic crisis since the 1930s is close to bottoming out, wrung-out investors will keep on pumping money into gold-backed securities as insurance against financial Armageddon.

"Gold is an investment you hope you never make money on. If you do, it means other markets have lost," said Stephen White, director at Sydney-based treasury advisory firm Noah's Rule.

Gold's gains are being powered by two forces -- the risk that the greenback may collapse under the trillions of dollars Washington is injecting into the economy, and that the European Central Bank's more hawkish stance will lead to debt default in the eurozone.

"(There is) the guy who has the helicopter loaded and is on route to currency debasement, versus those who can't touch the printing press, fueling sovereign risk and possible collapse from within," said Alan Ruskin at RBS.

The first view is represented by Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, nicknamed "Helicopter Ben" for talking about helicopter drops of money to jumpstart an ailing economy, and the other by European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet's oft-repeated mantra of vigilance.
Comment On This Story

Ruskin added that even with prices for spot gold near $1,000 an ounce, just short of a record high of $1,030.80 struck last year, it was hard to argue against long gold, short every commodity tied to the real economic cycle.
Related Stories
Transcript: Don Phillips
Harvard's Finance Meltdown
Morgan Stanley Wants Out From Under TARP
$3,000 Gold And Sagging Stocks
The $150 Million Zapper
Stories
Videos

SOVEREIGN, BANK DEFAULTS

Iceland and Ecuador have defaulted on government bonds, and worries about the health of the banking sector in a host of countries across Europe, including Ireland and the United Kingdom, persist.

Other nations, including Turkey, Latvia, Hungary, Ukraine and Serbia, have reached out to the International Monetary Fund for help in recent months.

"Eastern European banks -- if they default further then it will trigger the second wave of the sub-prime crisis," said Akhi Kamkolkar, Head of Futures at Halifax investments in Sydney.

"(Gold) is the only true safe haven. The dollar is just about worth the paper it's printed on and if they keep on printing, there is really only one place for it to go."

Even U.S. treasury bonds are considered a risk. The cost of insuring against default on 5-year US Treasuries is now 90 basis points -- it was nothing just over a year earlier.

"Gold could be preferable to currencies if there are concerns about the credit quality of the issuer of the paper currency. The increasing correlation between gold prices and measures of sovereign and financial risk default clearly suggests that gold has become the 'currency of last resort'," Goldman Sachs (nyse: GS - news - people ) said.

And investors are listening. The world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, the SPDR Gold Trust, said holdings hit a record 1,028.98 tonnes last week, making the fund the world's seventh biggest holder of bullion, just behind Switzerland.

For a graphic on SPDR Gold Trust's holdings, please click: https://customers.reuters.com/d/graphics/MKTS_SPDR240209.gif

Average 2009 daily trade volume for the fund is 19.7 million, 38 percent above the average for 2008, while the increase in stocks held by the fund this year already exceeds that for all of last year.

"Just buy gold," was the advice from Mark Pervan, senior commodities analyst at ANZ Bank.

"The exchange traded funds are driving prices. The investment community just wants to find somewhere to park its money." 

Source : Reuters

Global financial crisis

The global financial crisis and its consequences 

Financial institutions have to deal with longer-term strategies and sustainable business models to recruit new realities. 


Reconsideration 

Financial service providers have their traditional models fundamentally rethink. Unlike after other recessions of the postwar period is not expected that the global economy to recover quickly and the old trains will continue to run. "Changes in this magnitude have occurred in the financial world is unprecedented," commented Matthias Memminger, Partner and Head of Business Consultancy Financial Services at PricewaterhouseCoopers Switzerland, "whole industries will change, and traditional patterns of cooperation will lose its validity. The more important are targeted measures to combat the uncertainty and to reduce the volatility in the markets - in the interests of all stakeholders in government, management and shareholders. " 

Shift of global power 

The financial power is shifting further from west to east. The subprime bubble burst as Auslöserin the global economic crisis is an expression of a US-centric global economy interpreted. This macroeconomic imbalance will increasingly through a new pattern in international trade and investment removed. Moreover, many Western financial institutions in the past two years, crucial values such as trust, reliability, stability and good regulation have been neglected. "We are moving towards a multipolar world, in the Western financial centers can easily be circumvented," says Matthias Memminger. «Successful globalization has always been at the trade-oriented ways, so the banks will in future also increasingly investing in the East." 

Renaissance of the traditional banking model 

A more regulated banking system and the dominance of a global financial model will be the future banking landscape. "The profits are in different years lower than in the past, but long term, sustained higher, as risk-sensitive strategies and a customized business mix continued good returns are possible," Matthias Memminger is convinced. "The future belongs to the 'Nouveau Classic'-bank model, the simpler, less risk and more transparent and thus operates long-term profitability. Successful banks will be more on its original core focus, with more responsibility and care, the quality of their loan guarantee. " 

Stronger interventions by governments 

The governments will be to stimulate the economy even more in the financial system to intervene. The most these interventions are already in the U.S., Britain and Germany felt, where the pressure on state-sponsored banks is increasing. Other conflicts and influences are predictable, because the companies under the massive bail-outs of the banks insist that their behavior more to the interests of the general public than those of the shareholders' needs. "The next time the governments in the financial system play a primary role," says Matthias Memminger. "You could say it's a 'New Deal' of the 21st Call century, comparable to the state intervention and the economic and social reforms during the great depression. " 

Sustainable Strategies 

Financial institutions have to deal with longer-term strategies and sustainable business models to the new realities set in which the interests of governments and society are becoming more relevant. Organizations that are still reactive and behavior of short-term profit-guided, in the future competitive disadvantage.

What are the consequences of the financial crisis?

On October 11, Floriane wondered what impact the financial crisis would have on the "younger generation", tomorrow or in a few years ... I waited a few weeks before proposing some answers, but I admit that yet, I can not see the true outcome of this crisis. Stock market fluctuations are such that the nausea takes anyone interested in a little more closely. Of course, governmental voices are strong (very strong in Europe). Of course, taxes are impressive. But the disaster was just as much. Who can say if this will be enough? 

Like many, I first was amazed to see the failure of governments to respond. France curves back - confident that the crisis would not it? And then finally came time for European and national decisions. It was time to prove that a policy response could be particularly useful and effective. Above all, he was now convinced that everything was under control. Really? Without partisanship or New York or Paris or Berlin or Tokyo, or even Beijing can not avoid the economic repercussions of the financial storm. 

So who will pay? Savers, employees, consumers and tomorrow, taxpayers will pay the price ... In short, the whole world because the whole economy will suffer from the follies of Wall Street and Company. "In France, growth is expected to be zero in 2009, says Philippe Askenazy professor at the Ecole d'économie de Paris. It will not restart until early 2010. "Is it pink is the scenario: depending on the magnitude and speed of contagion, recession could be more or less long and severe. Many French people have already felt the first effects. 

On all fronts, most investors now have the impression that the crisis has planted its teeth in their large property. Resulting in what economists call an effect of impoverishment. Davydoff Didier, director of the Observatory of European savings, anticipated changes in behavior: "Those who believe that their wealth will diminish rebuild their savings rather than consumption. "By focusing on safe havens ... Simply put, instead of spend, the richer will save. This is as many commands in less for the industry. Who says less than controls, said less work. And who said that less work fewer recruits. At best ... 

To make matters worse, in this context, credit is more scarce and more expensive, which will further stifle consumer spending and business investment. And stifle business. Faced with international competition, tempted by the relocation industry, which according to the INSEE has already lost 64 300 jobs between January 2007 and June 2008, may be particular to the sentence. As explained Yvon Jacob, president of the Group of Industrial Federations, "when the prospects are not good, a company must reduce its production preferred first touch of the other jobs and stop using its subcontractors" . And the latter, lack of cash may soon find themselves facing bankruptcy. Beyond the use in the companies themselves, life may be disrupted. Employees, fasten your seatbelts! 

But that's not all ... In a context of weak growth - and even prolonged recession - financing retirement of baby boomers and repay the debt may turn to squaring the circle. Who will pay? All of us, tomorrow, and no doubt the next generation, to which it will, in addition to tightening the belt, to find a solution to this puzzle. What to give good work for forty years ... At least!

Money & You

Forex forex or not 


The currency market is highly risky and requires extensive knowledge to negotiate on it. Learn how. 


When trouble breaks out of the pyramids and the illegal collection of money, the international currency market (Forex) ended because some companies were challenged to justify the high yields offered to alleged investments in this market. Such is the case with Forex Capital, a pyramid that functioned in Tulua, Buenaventura, Cucuta and Armenia but whose performance had nothing to do with buying and selling currencies. But it also found companies that were promoting the product without proper authorization from the Superintendence of Finance, as Evolution Market Group (Finanzas Forex), an entity supposedly set up in Panama, which also did not have a license in that country. 

This situation made pillory andalusia Forex and created the public perception that this type of investment was a pyramid, when it is one of the largest financial market in the world, where anyone can go through electronic means buy and sell all kinds of currencies (dollar, euro, yen, pound sterling, Swiss franc, etc.). 

In Colombia, a person can legally Forex through two mechanisms: searching for a broker or do it abroad in Colombia through a representative office of a broker or correspondent abroad. 

In the first case, if the investor has the resources in Colombia, the country must be removed using a Forex broker (bank, agent, money exchange) as if it were an international money order. Therefore, you must declare the source of the resources and the declaration of change at the Bank of the Republic. 

The recommendation in this case is to invest in a broker recognized in history, supervision and monitoring of state agencies, and use formal channels to turn the money to the account abroad goes with which to operate. Do not hand over money to anyone. 

When it comes to a representative office or a correspondent who has one of these brokers in the country with international entities duly authorized by the Superintendence of Finance to promote your product, be sure to check the references of the body and remember that all service and transactions are made outside the broker. Ie, the entity in Colombia will have to certify that you opened the account with the broker and international resources going to that account. In this case, turns to the outside that you make are also registered with the Central Bank. 

So far, the only entity authorized by the Superfinanciera is Fit Forex Investment Team AG, Representative Office in Colombia of Forex Investment Team AG, a Forex broker based in Switzerland. 

How to invest in Forex? 

The broker on the outside and the representative office will provide the platform for investors to trade in the currency market. The client decides whether he negotiates directly, or delivered to a trader of the entity responsible for negotiating (account management). 

After having a clear path to access the Forex, remember that this is a highly risky market because it can obtain high yields in short periods of time, given the high volatility of these markets and the high degree of leverage can also be losing the entire investment. With deposits ranging from U.S. $ 300 could take positions up to $ 60,000 by making small changes in the price of currencies can lose or win a big business. Thus, we must be clear that no one can guarantee profits in Forex fixed. Do not trust companies that guarantee a high profitability in the short term it will have to take very high risks to generate or are doing other things. 

Speculation in the currency market should be done with money that can be risky and that if lost would not affect the financial situation and lifestyle of the investor. This money does not guarantee or state funds or deposits in Colombia or abroad. It is the investor who assumes all risk, so you must learn how to do very well. 

For Margarita Baez expert Forex and legal representative of Fit Forex Investment Team AG, if someone wants to negotiate on their own should have a lot of discipline, focus on a few markets, in depth and meet daily. "The main problem is that investors in one day want to return millionaires. And this is a market which requires a lot of discipline ... The negotiation strategy is to recommend that the risk is what might be easily retrieved. This is your stop loss (loss limit), "he says. 

The entities have demos (demonstration software) for people to try the platform before investing. If you decide to invest directly, do so on computers themselves (never in an internet cafe), but if you do not have time to operate or do not know how the administration may seek from an expert (managed accounts). In this case, be sure who is the trader, his record transactions, check their profile and experience, talk with clients who have run it. In short, anything that lets you know the type of professional who is giving money. Fit in these accounts are opened from U.S. $ 25,000 U.S. dollars. Remember that the Forex managed account must be in your name and all or part of their funds can be withdrawn at any time you want, no fines or penalties. 

Whatever path you choose, keep in mind that resources should never be handled through intermediaries in the exchange market, nor are they required to deliver to individuals.

Forex Faq

Who regulates the Forex market? 

In the United States since December 2003, there is a clear regulation on the Retail Forex Market, Forex market involving small speculators (accounts with less than one million dollars). This regulation is carried out by the CFTC (Commodities and Futures Trading Commission), who in turn is in service with the National Futures Association, to keep track of all fiduiciarias companies participating in this market, as is the If IFX MARKETS. 

Is not this money laundering? 

No, the contrary, when the market monitored by NFA and CFTC meets the most stringent regulations (hardened from September 11, 2001) to combat money laundering and the financing or support terrorists. 

What currencies can handle in Forex? 

Currencies in the world are divided into 2 groups: high volume known as "majors" that include the Euro, Pound, Yen, Swiss Franc and the U.S., Canadians and Australians. On the other hand we have the low volume of currency circulation, these are called exotic currencies and between these is the Mexican peso along with other world currencies. 

Is it legal to operate the Forex? 

Absolutely, there is no law prohibiting or restricting the right to limit an investor to open an account with a broker regulated by the CFTC and NFA as is the case for IFX Markets, the company through which Global IFX performs operations their customers. 

Is there an auction floor in the Forex Market? 

No, the FOREX market, is there thanks to the negotiations of 4500 central banks and international financial entities such as brokers. As in Mexico there is one place where you can buy and sell foreign exchange (and there are exchange offices and banks) in the world there is no single place to meet this market. 

Who decides what price must each currency? 

Mainly supply and demand for currency, which is based on macroeconomic situations, policies and welfare. With this, each bank or financial entity, publishes 2 prices, the bid price or takes, that is what This entity would buy a currency, and Ask, or the sale price represents the price at which the entity would be willing to sell such currency. 

If my bag down to lower investment risks for this? 

Not necessarily, between the currency market and stock markets, there is no direct link, so if a particular index like the Standard and Poors or Dow Jones is down, not necessarily a currency loses value.

What is Forex? Why invest in Forex?

The Foreign Exchange Market - FOREX 

The currency market is a market inter-bank or inter-dealer that was established in 1971. He is an "Over-The-Counter", which means that transactions are conducted between the 2 parties agree to negotiate by phone or electronic network. The Trading this way is more centralized, as is the case for the large market shares (eg, NYSE, ASE, CME), or as in the futures market in foreign exchange and options on currencies, which are negotiated in special markets. The dealerships often warn their rates using a distribution network, such as those provided by Reuters or Bridge. Then, the "dealers" use of information from these sources to confirm the rate and operation. 

The main centers of currency today are: London with about 30% of the market, New York with 20%, 12% Tokyo, Zurich, Frankfurt, Hong Kong and Singapore, with about 7% each, followed by Paris and sydney with 3% each. 

In terms of volumes of change, the Forex market is the largest in the world with daily volumes exceeding 500 ¡1 trillion dollars!. This will no point of comparison with the market "bond" or actions. For example, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) has a daily volume of 60 billion U.S. dollars. In this way the Forex market is by far the greater liquidity in the world until this time. In fact, with these volumes of change, it is impossible for one individual or one company affect the exchange rate. In fact, even central banks and governments are incredibly difficult to change the course of the currency with higher liquidity such as the U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, Swiss Franc, Euro, Canadian Dollar or Australian Dollar. 

The Forex is a market that really is open 24 hrs. a day, 5 days a week. There are "dealers" in each of time zones. The trading starts in Sydney on Monday (this corresponds to 3 pm EST on Sunday) and was moving around the world every day by the different centers to close on Friday afternoon at 4:30 pm EST in New York.